- MIRS's Report

 Executive Summery 

 We were walking in the streets of Baghdad, Basra and Najaf.. We did not see any of the different groups and classes of the people, feeling safe, reassuring and political stability, in those areas.. All of them believe that the marginalization of al-Sadr in the political process is not an easy matter.
This report issued by the Mediterranean Institute for Regional Studies "MIRS", by presenting and categorizing information, attempts to explore the future of the political process in Iraq in the light of Sadr's new maneuvers.

First / From Al-Hananah to Al-Sadr City

   It became clear to everyone that Muqtada al-Sadr and the movement representing (870) thousand Iraqi voters and (73) seats in Parliament, did not withdraw from Parliament and the political process, to present power to his competitors on a plate of gold, and it was not because of what was said about Al-Sadr’s I’tikaf and his dedication to seminary studies .. After Al-Sadr stayed in Saudi Arabia for 6 days with 26 of the personalities accompanying him, he returned to Iraq and did not perform the Hajj! Why did he decide to establish the obligatory prayer and then suddenly returned without performing it.. when he moved the field of his struggles from Al-Hananah to Al-Sadr City?!

With the first day of July this year, the process of transferring Al-Sadr’s followers from all cities of Iraq to Al-Sadr area in the capital, Baghdad, began. According to the information, al-Sadr, in preparation for his newest movement, divided the affairs of his current committees into six parts:
1- Haider Al-Jabri, responsible for all the media axes of the Sadrist movement

2- Hakim Zamili, Public Relations Officer of the Sadrist Movement
3 / Hazem Al-Araji, the supervisor of the affairs of all the shrines..

4/ Sayyid Muhannad Al-Musawi, the sermon official in Kufa, and he is the preacher of Kufa.

 5/ Mr. Ibrahim Al-Jabri, Director of the Al-Shaheed Al-Sadr School, and he is the supervisor of the shrine of Al-Sadr the father and the affairs of the Al-Sadr family and brothers.

 6 / Sheikh Muhammad Al-Aboudi, Director of Follow-up and Coordination of the Sadrist Movement.

 Second: Is it possible for Muqtada al-Sadr to repeat the 2017 scenario?

    Al-Sadr has become a mystery to all Iraqi centers, the men of the security services, the people of Parliament, the media, and even to book sellers, café-goers, taxi drivers, passengers, and in everywhere. What does Muqtada al-Sadr do? Many of them imagine the results of the upcoming operation of Al-Sadr in this way:

     First, al-Sadr abandons his fan base.
    Secondly, the Sadrists knew that they could not form a government with their allies and could not become an opposition in Parliament that would hear their voices.. Therefore, the alternative is popular opposition, million demonstrations in the street, and control of opponents.. because it does not pass without the bloodshed of activists and those close to al-Sadr and the disappearance of Others are in prison.
 Third: After demonstrating and violent confrontation in the street, the result will be al-Sadr's control of his opponents, or he will be broken.
Those close to al-Sadr mentioned that a million banners bearing the slogans (No, No to Normalization) have been prepared.. (No, No to the Corrupt.. It is known that Sadr City is the stronghold of the current, with a population of (5) million followers of al-Sadr, which extends The current is always with 19-20 parliamentary complexes..
The main reason for al-Sadr's return to Iraq and the abandonment of the Hajj rituals is the determination of (Nuri al-Maliki) and his partners to form the government as soon as possible... because the Sadrists realize that al-Maliki's formation of the government will lead to an attempt to limit al-Sadr and control him.

Third: Sadr and their Military forces

Some observers and military forces of some political parties and al-Sadr go with them, that the end of every movement of al-Sadr in Iraq serves Iran. Many see al-Sadr as a diligent Iraqi Shiite, working to restore sovereignty to Iraq, and he is the representative of the poor and the destitute classes of society and the Iraqi street.. According to many sources, al-Sadr, in parallel with the religious and media mobilization, has prepared his military battalions in a state of readiness;

     The Promised Brigade, which includes 8000 armed men.

      - Saraya al-Salam, which consists of (18000) armed men.

     The Imam Ali Brigades, which includes (12,000) militants.
All of al-Sadr's military wings are supervised by (Abu al-Dua' al-Issawi).. al-Sadr wears a white shroud. It is noticeable that Ammar al-Hakim and Haider al-Abadi have withdrawn from al-Maliki's front and the frontline.. This threatens to erupt massive fires in Iraqi streets and alleys..

 Fourth, the Shiite component in Iraq now does not own a home..!

  This component, after the operation to liberate Iraq, transformed into four different wings and axes, namely;

   - Al-Hakim's house was a place to form the government.

   - Al-Sadr's house was a leader and control of the Shiite street.

   - The Dawa party, which controlled the governments of Iraq.

     - The Popular Mobilization wing, Al-Amri, Abu Fadak, Qais Al-Khazali and Faleh Al-Fayyad.

    This is why it is very difficult for al-Sadr to hand over power to al-Maliki.
It was the beginning of al-Sadr's move, through a fiery tweet against President Barham Salih, during which he cursed (Saleh) and absolved himself of him and his future.. It is clear that (Saleh's) insistence and adherence to his position are among the main causes of the country's fragmented and deteriorating political reality, anxiety and insecurity in the country.

  Result
 During the government of Adel Abdul-Mahdi in 2019, when the street raged, more than 800 demonstrators were killed and thousands were injured.. At that time (Al-Sadr) was studying in (Qom) to obtain the degree of a mujtahid, with (Wahed Al-Khorasani), during the tweet (gouge out- Shala’ Qalaa), he ended Abdul-Mahdi’s government .. At a time when that government had power, especially with the presence of (Hajj Qassem Soleimani) in the square, and he and (the engineer) were running all the joints of the government through (Abu Jihad al-Hashemi), the director of the president’s office.. And now (Al-Sadr) and his tweet, are stronger than that. the time..
  The Kurds, as a whole, the government, the parties and the media, must be united and have one discourse, and prepare themselves for the challenges ahead.

Bewar Abdulrahman/ Coordinator of the Mediterranean Institute for Regional Studies